Math Is Hard
Yeah, yeah, I know. I just got this superdelegate counter link at CNN (which I admit is totally fun) from a good friend who sort of reiterated the now-familiar theme (paraphrasing): “She can’t win! She’s destroying the party! She’s got to quit!” As my friend said, “Do the math yourself.” My email response….
Okay. Just for example, if Hillary won, say, seven of the remaining contests by the margin she just won Pennsylvania (giving Obama North Carolina and Oregon by the same margin), she can win by getting three out of four superdelegates to support her. Long shot? Absolutely. Impossible? Nope. A lot of things can happen between now and August. (And I have no idea what the “optics” are in Guam.) I don’t like the tenor of this thing more than most folks, but I also think that the clamoring for Hillary… a historic candidate running a rough, ugly and very serious campaign… to get out is a little overblown. Why should she get out when it’s mathematically possible for her to win? Abstracted to that level, the only way to win is to knock the other person out of the race… and nobody has done that yet. I tend to think the “damage to the Democrat party” theme is largely a function of news blowhards and hyped up supporters who, if they’re threatening to take their votes and go home, are a pretty sketchy group to depend on anyway. I would *really, really, really* like to see this be a contest about the two of them taking on McCain’s frankly weird positions on war (more!) and the economy (what now?). But, alas, we don’t decide these things (though we can grouse and talk and blog and write letters, which are all good things to do).
I don’t disagree with the general “writing on the wall” that we’re seeing. But to say that “she can’t win” isn’t accurate. And, despite the migraine that this campaign is giving me (and Obama’s no saint in this either), I’d like to see the first truly viable woman candidate to run for this office take it as far as she possibly can. This will make it that much easier for future candidates, of any gender or race, who might be told, “You can’t win. You’re destroying the party. Just go home.”
Back to the now: both candidates should be doing a much better job of protecting the Democratic line and undermining the Republican one (and it would be so easy!). But politics, as they say, ain’t beanbag. It’s not even paintball. It’s like an episode of the old Star Trek where they go to some godforsaken planet, and all the redshirts get vaporized or turned into rice cakes, and then weird little moppet gangs or giant lizard people come out to string you up and eat you. On a good day.
So, for what it’s worth, yes, you are all right, Hillary is not going to win the nomination. But by the same token, you are all wrong, she can totally still win the nomination. And if you are just positive that she’s “destroying the party,” well, I salute your surety. A lot of folks think otherwise. I agree that this isn’t my ideal campaign either, but then no one said it was going to be pretty. In the meantime, let’s enjoy the right to caterwaul about it in our unruly public sphere. Tomatoes, spittle and withering put-downs may be hurled below.
April 25, 2008 at 12:55 pm
So, when is the DNC going to announce that the FL and MI delegates will be counted in their original and unadulterated form? Then Hillary will have the votes that her campaign and her character has earned and deserves! Just because the candidates were not allowed to “advertise” in these states, does not mean that the people could not form their own decisions and still get out and vote! Let every American be heard!
April 28, 2008 at 9:39 pm
To Justin: FL maybe, but Barack was not even on the ballot in MI (were a re-vote held today, Hillary would be lucky to gain anything there, anyway). And this was decidedly not the tune Hillary was whistling a few months ago. Anyway, fair or not, it’s not happening, give it up.
That said, Colin, I’m with you (with reservations, listed below) right up until the part where you claim that this is a path Hillary blazes for future candidates. Um, only if that “blazing” amounts to brushfires, bridges, etc. Here’s the meme: women can only run and get as far as Hillary if they are as “tough,” devious, calculating and have ample Thatchers (Colbert’s term for lady balls); IF this thing plays out and Obama loses, Hillary will get some of the blame, deserved or not. Therefore I should think that in that case it will be LESS LIKELY that long shot campaigns will stay in.
Here are my reservations: Hillary will not “wreck the party,” and yes, there are no compelling reasons for her to leave. However, in order to actually force that mathematical unlikelihood (getting more unlikely all the time), what will she have to do to Barack? What could possibly be the coup de grace that takes him down on her terms? Will she herself be electable after something like that?
Here’s the irony of the Clinton campaign now: in order for her to get the nomination, she has to pull something that will all but ensure her loss.
April 29, 2008 at 12:15 am
i agree with you that she’s not going to wreck the party and that it’s silly to try to push her out of the race. only i think hillary is more electable than barack over john mccain, because i think we’re seeing that, shocking though it is, non-white is worse than non-male. and apparently calling people “bitter” is worse than “mis-remembering” getting off a plane in bosnia.
also, let’s be honest, i’m going to vote for the democrat either way. anyone who says they would vote republican simply because of hillary is not a democrat and has no principles. (i don’t mind using superlatives on blog comments.) but hillary’s policy stances, though still moderate, are more liberal than barack’s. he’s more moderate/conservative than people pay attention to. even though he is such a damn amazing orator. and left-handed! hillary’s hair and outfits have been looking so much better since she got to pennsylvania. wonder if she got a new stylist, too.
thus closes my thoroughly profound comment….